Are Immigrants To Sweden Responsible For Increase In Drug Use

Introduction

Numerous Nordic studies have shown that individuals of foreign background, every bit a rule including both strange-built-in individuals and those born in Sweden with foreign-born parents (hereafter labelled 'the 2nd generation'), are over-represented among those registered for crime (see e.g. Hällsten et al., 2013; Klement, 2020; Skardhamar et al., 2014). A number of Swedish studies have found the gamble for confidence among persons of foreign background to be approximately twice that of individuals born in Sweden to 2 Swedish-born parents. In studies that have not exclusively focused on immigrant background and criminal offense, but that have also been able to capture between-group differences in levels of resource, the over-representation tends to be lower (Brå, 2019). The differences are also significantly smaller in inquiry focused on cocky-reported offending, which primarily describes involvement in less serious offences among teenagers. In Swedish self-report studies from more recent years, for example, youths of strange background do not generally appear to be more involved in offending (Vasiljevic et al., 2020).

A recent review of Danish studies on clearing and crime concludes that the levels of overrepresentation differ depending on type of study (Klement, 2020). The variation betwixt studies is inter alia due to differences in study populations, definitions of foreign background and the types of register data and crime outcomes analysed. In physical terms, the difficulties comparing results from different studies means that analyses accept rarely been able to draw more precise conclusions about whether levels of overrepresentation, either in full general or for different groups or offence types, have varied over time.

The nature of clearing to Scandinavia has shifted over the past five decades. Stated briefly, until the 1970s migration to Sweden was dominated by labour and family unit-reunification migration from the other Nordic countries and southern Europe (SCB, 2016). From the 1990s, there has instead been a articulate increment in refugee migration from non-European countries. In the Nordic public contend, this modify in migration patterns is often linked to increases in offense and an alleged increase of the overrepresentation in crime among individuals of foreign background (Estrada, 1999:131ff). During contempo decades, political parties such as the Danish People'south Political party, the Norwegian Progress Party, the Finns Party and the Sweden Democrats take recorded significant balloter successes, and linking migration and crime accept undoubtedly been an important chemical element in the rhetoric of these parties (run into eastward.thousand. Rydgren, 2004). In recent years, alleged negative developments in Sweden in particular accept attracted substantial interest in Scandinavia and have even given rising to a new concept – 'the Swedish status' (e.g., Lokland & Nilsson, 2018).

Although the political debate has emphasized a negative view of crime trends linked to immigration, research remains unclear regarding how levels of overrepresentation in crime amidst persons of foreign background have adult. The aim of this tudy was to analyse Swedish conviction trends past individuals' immigrant groundwork for the period 1973–2017. All results will be presented by gender, a cistron that has to date been missing from the published Nordic research (see beneath for a more detailed discussion). Given the significance of betwixt-grouping differences in crime (Bäckman et al., 2020), the lack of studies that have been able to combine analyses of immigrant and other factors such every bit socioeconomic background over time is likewise problematic. This is a cognition gap not simply in Scandinavia merely besides in other parts of the world, since such analyses require the linking of different data sets that are rarely available over significant periods of time.

The commodity'southward central inquiry question is whether differences in conviction levels for those of foreign groundwork have increased, declined or remained unchanged over contempo decades. The results are presented in 2 blocks which stand for to two sub-questions relating to the longitudinal trend of between-grouping differences in the criminal conviction rate. These questions are examined in role using a traditional cross-sectional arroyo, and in function a cohort-based approach:

What are the long-term trends when the population is grouped on the footing of immigrant background and gender? Nosotros present the between-group differences for the period 1973–2017. This analysis is conducted using a traditional cross-exclusive pattern in which confidence levels are compared on the basis of 1-year periods of time at risk for conviction for all offences, theft offences, trigger-happy offences and drug offences.
What trends do we see for groups based on immigrant background and gender when we follow individuals over fourth dimension, and also examine the most frequently bedevilled individuals, who account for a large proportion of registered law-breaking? This analysis gain from a accomplice-based approach, in which we focus on the cumulative risk for conviction for a 10-year menstruum from age 15 to 24. The cohort design allows usa to examine the significance of the individuals' childhood atmospheric condition. In this section we are therefore able to nowadays fourth dimension series for levels of over- and underrepresentation while holding socioeconomic groundwork constant, by looking at trends in the lowest income strata. Information availability considerations mean that this analysis is conducted for the period 1990–2017.

Previous research

Information technology is well-established inside Nordic criminology that immigrants, and also their children, are at higher hazard of offending. The literature includes a range of different explanations for this overrepresentation (for reviews, see e.g., Beckley et al., 2017; Hällsten et al., 2013; Skardhamar et al., 2014). Stated briefly, 3 different categories of explanations are normally emphasized. The first involves factors related to which individuals drift to the land, with the assumption being that conditions in the country of origin atomic number 82 to a selection with regard to which individuals emigrate. Lenke (1983/2009), for instance, argued that the overrepresentation in offending among Finnish migrants in Sweden during the 1970s was linked to the fact that many of those who migrated from Finland to Sweden at the fourth dimension were socioeconomically disadvantaged. Yet, more recent studies from both Sweden and the Netherlands suggest that conditions in the country of origin play a subordinate office by comparison with the living conditions experienced by migrants in the destination country (Beckley, 2013; Bovenkerk & Fokkema, 2016). A slightly different attribute of choice relates to the reasons for migration, for example, whether migrants are refugees or labour-market migrants (Andersen et al., 2022). In this regard, there has been a substantial shift in Sweden, where an increasingly large proportion of immigrants are comprised of persons seeking asylum. It is currently unclear what event this compositional shift has had on levels of overrepresentation in criminal offense. The second, and ascendant, category of explanations focuses on the differences in levels of resources that be between strange-born individuals and their descendants, every bit compared to natives. The central factor here is quite merely that the fundamental causes of crime are institute in the circumstances that condition the individual life course. There are a large number of studies showing that differences in levels of involvement in crime are reduced if an analysis is able to control for differences in individuals' childhood and current living weather (run into Hällsten et al., 2013 for a review).

Thirdly, research indicates that part of the overrepresentation is linked to discriminatory practices on the part of the police and criminal justice system. International research has shown, for example, that not-white individuals are at significantly higher risk of existence stopped by the police without having committed an offence (see Mulinari, 2020 for a review). Exactly how neat the significance of bigotry is for the patterns noted in crime statistics, and whether this has changed over time, is a very difficult question to reply however. At present, nosotros are not aware of any Nordic enquiry that has examined this effect.

The trend in levels of overrepresentation

Few Swedish studies accept analysed changes in the between-group differences over time. One recent study has employed the Swedish School Survey on Crime to examine the trends in self-reported offending for different groups based on immigrant groundwork (Vasiljevic et al., 2020). During the period 1999–2017, the proportion of students who written report having engaged in offending has declined in all groups, irrespective of groundwork. It is notable, notwithstanding, that the decline has been strongest amid strange-built-in youths. In 2022, strange-built-in 16-year-olds reported lower levels of offending than youths born in Sweden to Swedish-born parents. As regards studies based on register information, a study restricted to persons aged fifteen–44, plant that for individuals of strange background, the risk of being registered as a crime suspect was roughly double that of native Swedes during the flow 2022–2017 (Adamsson 2020). Comparisons with previous studies conducted in the same manner indicate that this level of excess hazard has remained relatively stable since the beginning of the 2000s. These comparisons as well testify that the tendency has differed somewhat between strange-built-in persons and the second-generation immigrants, with the level of excess chance declining somewhat for the former group but increasing somewhat for the latter (Adamsson 2020).

Nordic researchers have published a pocket-size number of studies analysing criminal offense trends with a focus on immigrant background and changes in the level of overrepresentation (come across besides Klement, 2020; Brå, 2019 for recent reviews). Andersen et al. (2011) show that amongst men in Kingdom of denmark, the excess risk for conviction over the grade of a year is greatest for children of immigrants from not-Western countries, and thereafter for persons born abroad in these same countries. Viewed in relation to 'Danes', the excess risk for these groups, taking age differences into consideration, has declined over time, however, from three.0 at the beginning of the 1990s, to less than 2.five in 2006 (Andersen et al., 2011, p. 16). The study, which is based on register data for a large sample of men anile xv–45, presents levels of overrepresentation and their evolution over time both with and without controls for historic period and socioeconomic limerick. The level of overrepresentation declines over fourth dimension both with and without the inclusion of controls. The report does non present trends for female offenders.

Boesen Pedersen et al. (2017) have analysed trends for the subsequent period (2006–2014) using partly different methods and groups. This analysis shows that the number of suspects aged 10–17 has undergone a general reject in Kingdom of denmark. The decline is too substantial (slightly over 40%) amongst youths labelled 'the most criminal' (individuals suspected of more than iii serious offences between the ages of 10 and 17). When the authors separate the youths into groups on the ground of immigrant groundwork, simply small differences can be seen over time. The central finding was thus that youth criminal offence has declined among youths of 'Danish groundwork', amongst 'second-generation Danes' and also among persons born abroad. However, the decline was somewhat weaker in the 2d generation than amid persons born abroad. The written report does not present changes over time in the number of individuals in the different groups, only but the distribution of crime suspects. Among the two categories of youths of immigrant groundwork there is some modify in the level of overrepresentation. While this declines for youths born exterior Denmark (from 4.5 to 3.2 times), information technology increases somewhat (from 3.5 to 4.0) for 2nd generation Danes. The report does not present the results relating to immigrant groundwork separately by gender.

A recent Norwegian study also shows that the level of overrepresentation amid the children of immigrants has increased betwixt 1992–2015 (Andersen et al., 2022). The analysis is based on cases that the police accept cleared and submitted for prosecution, and the study includes controls for age and gender composition, but does not present results separately for men and women. The report shows that the level of overrepresentation among immigrants has declined since the millennium. This is the case for immigrant groups of both European and non-European groundwork and for both fierce and theft offences. The decline in the level of overrepresentation is primarily due to a stronger reject amongst strange-born individuals by comparison with the balance of the population (ibid: 55).

Viewed in combination, existing Nordic studies show that levels of overrepresentation among strange-built-in individuals have not increased over contempo decades. Instead, some findings point declining differences. In addition, we see a pattern whereby the least positive trend, and thus an increased level of excess risk, is found in relation to the children of immigrants, i.e. the second generation. In the pocket-size number of studies that include controls for socioeconomic differences, the levels of excess gamble pass up considerably, which is not unexpected, since individuals of foreign background more often grow upward in relatively disadvantaged conditions (run into also Hällsten et al., 2013). Finally, the Nordic research we have identified does not present information on the extent to which the trends over time amongst groups from different background categories differ for men and women, respectively.

Data, operationalizations and methods

It is well-established that convictions information of the kind on which this article is based are problematic in the sense that only a small proportion of the offences actually committed effect in a conviction. This indicates that any assessment of patterns relating to offenders' background characteristics that are identified using official criminal offense statistics must consider the fact that such patterns reflect differences between dissimilar social groups in both offending propensities and societal reactions/detection risks (McAra, 2016; Nilsson et al., 2017: 589 f.).

Statistics on convictions at the level of the individual are administered by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention, and embrace the period from 1973 to the present. These statistics present the conviction decisions made by prosecutors (summary sanction orders and waivers of prosecution) and county court judgements involving a finding of guilt. Summary fines issued by the constabulary or the customs service are not included. A confidence may include decisions relating to several different offences.

The convictions register does not include data on the offenders' immigrant or social groundwork, nor their living weather condition at the time of the conviction. Such descriptions thus require the information to be linked to other registers, as has been the case in this written report.

The population in our database is comprised of all individuals anile 0–75 who were registered as resident in Sweden on December 31 during any of the years 1968–2016 (described in more particular in Bäckman et al., 2020). This means, for example, that tourists and aviary seekers who had non notwithstanding been granted residence permits and registered equally residents are not included. The study'due south database includes a full of approximately 15 1000000 individuals.

Convictions data

For all individuals in the report population, a so-chosen micro-data excerpt from the convictions annals was provided for the period 1973–2017. Year is divers by year of conviction. Since the age of criminal responsibility is xv in Sweden, we accept complete convictions data for the cohorts born from 1958 onwards. In full, almost 2 million individuals from our population take been convicted, in a total of just over 5 million convictions. The proportion of convictions that include more than than one offence has remained relatively stable at approximately 30% throughout the period examined.

The offence type is based on the offence stated in the conviction. Each conviction decision may chronicle to a number of offences (eastward.g., theft and drug offences). We have included all the offences specified in each conviction, and thus not only the master offence.

Data on immigrant and social background

In order to draw the convicted individuals' demographic and socioeconomic background characteristics, and also to place the full population during each year of the report period, we have made utilize of a number of different registers.

Demographics: Data on gender, age and country of birth have been nerveless from the Swedish Total Population Register. For persons born abroad, the Migration Register allows united states of america to determine when the individual moved to Sweden. A corresponding delimitation of fourth dimension at risk for conviction has been made in connexion with emigration or death (Annals of Deceased Persons). The Multi-Generation Register allows us to link the individuals in the report population together with information about their parents.
Socioeconomic groundwork: The Longitudinal integration database for health insurance and labour market place studies (LISA) and the Income and Tax annals allow usa to draw parents´ income from the year 1981 onwards.

Operationalizations and analytical methods

The crime outcomes that we analyse in the commodity are convictions for all offences, theft offences (Criminal Lawmaking Ch. 8 excl. 8:5–six [robbery]; Ch. 9:six–seven), violent offences (Criminal Code Ch. iii:ane–9; Ch. 4:1–7; Ch. 8:five–6 [robbery]; Ch. xvi:1–5; Ch. 17:1–4; Ch.21:viii) and drug offences (Drug Offences Act 1968:64; Smuggling [Offences] Act 2000:1225:half dozen).

Past post-obit individuals over fourth dimension, we have also been able to look at their full involvement in criminal offense from the age of criminal responsibility (15) to age 24. Nosotros distinguish those individuals who have been convicted at least once during this ten-twelvemonth period (which corresponds to the most criminally agile menses of the life course, e.g., Hirschi & Gottfredson, 1983; for a Swedish case run across Sivertsson, 2018), and a smaller group whom we label repeat offenders. Given the substantial differences between the convictions frequencies of men and women, this group is comprised of individuals with ii or more than convictions among the women and at least four convictions among the men. Based on these thresholds, the proportion of repeat offenders amid the men varies between 2.six (for those aged 24 in 2009) and 4.half-dozen (1990) per cent during the period 1990–2017 (i.eastward. cohorts born 1966–1993), while the corresponding figures for women are 0.9 (1999) and one.half dozen (1993) pct. When we look to the number of convictions accumulated by individuals between the ages of fifteen and 24 the assay only includes those individuals who have been registered every bit resident in Sweden throughout this period. This option is necessary for being able to create our indicator of socio-economic background (based on parents' incomes) when the individuals are at fifteen–17 years of age. This also renders more homogenous groups with immigrant background than in the cross-exclusive office of the study. For case, it is reasonable to presume that nosotros with this selection to a bottom degree include labour force immigrants.

We have created an immigrant groundwork variable that differentiates between four groups: a) Native: born in Sweden to at to the lowest degree ane Swedish-built-in parent; b) 2nd generation: built-in in Sweden to foreign-built-in parents; c) Immigrants from Western countries: born in Europe, the USA, Canada, Australia or New Zealand; d) Immigrants from non-western countries: built-in in some other country. This categorization is similar to that used in the Nordic studies described earlier. In those cases where there is only information for ane parent among the Swedish-built-in, this parent's birth state has been used in the categorization. In our concluding analyses, we combine those born abroad into a unmarried grouping (Immigrants).

Our measure of socioeconomic background is based on parental income data. Since we lack information on parental income for older individuals, these analyses are restricted to cohorts built-in 1966–1993. On the basis of the distribution of the parents' combined work income when an individual was aged fifteen, 16 and 17 nosotros have created variables that categorize the individuals' families during childhood into deciles, where Decile 1 refers to the 10% from families with the everyman incomes. We have then examined the state of affairs when each individual was aged xv–17¹ and categorized those who grew up in a family that was in Decile ane for two of these three years as 'low income'. This is a relatively 'stringent' measure of low socioeconomic status. Growing up in a depression-income family as defined hither probably also involves a stiff likelihood of having experienced other resource deficiencies and social problems. We know from previous research that different problematic weather condition during babyhood tend to cluster (see e.chiliad., Bäckman & Nilsson, 2011).

The article's analyses are presented in the grade of descriptive statistics. The ambition is to provide an overview of the trends over a substantial catamenia of time.

The results are presented in ii sections. In the first section nosotros present confidence trends per 100,000 individuals in each immigrant background category and by gender, and also the trends for each category relative to those for natives (i.due east. what is commonly labelled the level of overrepresentation). Since the age distribution varies substantially between the different groups, we have standardized our results for historic period past weighting the data so that all groups have the same age distribution as the native population. For reasons of infinite, the presentation of results for the split up offence types is restricted to showing levels of overrepresentation. In the second results department we utilise a cohort-approach to describe prevalence levels for nascency-cohorts built-in 1966–1993. Since we mensurate involvement in crime in the ages 15–24 this corresponds to the period 1990–2017. In this section we also present the measures that place the small-scale group who take been convicted repeatedly during their youth, and socioeconomic background.

Results

Cantankerous-sectional analysis – confidence trends by immigrant background 1973–2017

Figure 1a presents convictions per 100,000 for men by immigrant background with controls for between-group historic period differences. As expected, the level of convictions is lower for natives than for the other groups, throughout the period examined. The overarching design for the trend over time is that the level of convictions has declined markedly for all four groups, i.e. irrespective of immigrant background. Amid men built-in abroad, convictions increased during the 1970s and the highest convictions levels were noted at the beginning of the 1980s. For both groups of strange-built-in men and for the second generation, the conviction levels have declined past one-half by comparison with the 1970s. Previous studies (run across above) have found the second generation to accept fewer convictions than those born away. As can be seen in Figure 1b, this pattern has inverse since 2006. Since the offset of the 1980s, the level of overrepresentation has increased continuously for this group, while for those born abroad, it has declined since the millennium. It is important to note that these differing trends are not due to an increase in convictions among the 2nd-generation males, just rather to the level of convictions in this group having declined less markedly than that of the other groups examined.

Effigy one. a-b. All convictions among men by immigrant background 1973–2017 anile xv–75, age standardized. convictions per 100,000 (a) and relative risk trends with native as the reference category (b). Native: born in Sweden to Swedish-born parents; two^nd gen: born in Sweden to foreign-built-in parents; Imm. west: built-in in Western countries; Imm. other: born in non-Western countries.

Amidst women, the blueprint is slightly dissimilar (Figure 2a-b). Firstly, the level of convictions does not decline as substantially as amongst the men. For second-generation women, the level of convictions remains stable until 2009 and then declines. A like pattern is seen amidst native women. Among the foreign-born women the trend is very different, still. Hither levels of convictions first increase during the 1970s and 1980s. During the 1990s we see the starting time of a powerful pass up which and then continues throughout the period until 2022. It is notable that this decline means that second-generation women, every bit was the case among the men, have become the group with the highest level of convictions. Among the women, nonetheless, this group's level of overrepresentation has been more stable over time (Figure 2b). Finally, among the women too we encounter that the level of overrepresentation in convictions for foreign-born individuals was greatest around the get-go of the 1990s and lowest during the years since 2010.

Figure two. a-b.All convictions amongst women past immigrant background 1973–2017 aged 15–75, age standardized. convictions per 100,000 (a) and relative risk trends with native AS the reference category (b). Native: built-in in Sweden to Swedish-born parents; 2^nd gen: born in Sweden to foreign-built-in parents; Imm. west: born in Western countries; Imm. other: born in non-Western countries.

The confidence trends for theft, fierce and drug offences differ markedly both in Sweden and many other Nordic and European countries (see Bäckman et al., 2020). While theft convictions accept declined substantially, and are the crime type that has driven the full general trends presented above, convictions for violence have remained relatively stable and drug convictions take increased considerably. Figure 3a–f presents the relative trends in convictions by immigrant groundwork for these three offence categories with native men and women as the reference category.

Figure 3. a-f. Convictions 1973–2017 per 100,000 (aged 15–75, historic period standardized). Theft, vehement and drug offences by immigrant background and gender. relative risk trends with native as the reference category. Native: built-in in Sweden to Swedish-built-in parents; 2^nd gen: born in Sweden to foreign-born parents; Imm. westward: born in Western countries; Imm. other: born in non-Western countries.

A long-term decline in convictions for theft offences started in Sweden in the mid-1980s and occurred irrespective of immigrant background (meet Bäckman et al., 2020, p. 57). The level of overrepresentation is similar for both groups of strange-born men and is greatest in the mid-1980s and at the end of the 1990s (Figure 3a). For 2d-generation men in that location is a gradual increase in the level of overrepresentation. It is important here to bear in listen that the underlying pattern behind this trend is that theft convictions among second-generation men take declined more than slowly than theft convictions amid native men. The film is more complex for tearing offences (Figure 3b). Since the mid-1980s, the trends for the 2 Swedish-built-in groups have followed one another. This means that the increased overrepresentation noted amongst 2nd-generation men (see Effigy 1b), is not due to convictions for violent law-breaking. Amongst foreign-built-in men from non-Western countries, the difference in confidence levels compared to the Swedish-born reference group is greatest during the menses 1980–2000, when the risk for conviction is approximately 3.5 times as high. During the catamenia since the twelvemonth 2000, the level of overrepresentation has declined markedly. In the other grouping of foreign-born men, the level of overrepresentation has declined from just over 2.5 times at the beginning of the 1990s to ane.v times in the mid-2010s.

The trend for drug crime is interesting since this is an offence type for which policing measures in the form of 'end and search' play an important role for the trend in convictions. During the 1970s, the actual levels of convictions for drug offences were very low by comparison with the catamenia since the year 2000 for all the groups examined (run into Bäckman et al., 2020, p. 57). One important reason for the increase is that in 1993, the police were given increased powers to test for possession and drug use by ways of claret and urine testing. It is notable that this increase in the employ of police controls initially appears to bear upon convictions for all groups of men irrespective of immigrant groundwork; thus, for men during the menstruation 1994–2005, levels of overrepresentation appear relatively stable (Figure 3c). During the past ten years, the excess take a chance for being convicted for drug law-breaking amid foreign-born men has declined in relation to both groups of Swedish-born men. This ways that the increase in convictions for drug offences has been more notable among the male children of immigrants than among immigrant men. This is also part of the caption for why the total convictions level of Swedish-born men of foreign background has shifted to a college level than that of the foreign-built-in men (Effigy ane).

Amid women, the trends differ from those presented for men in a number of important means. Among foreign-built-in women, there has been a powerful decline in convictions for theft since the beginning of the 1990s.The level of overrepresentation among women born in not-Western countries has declined from over five times at the beginning of the 1990s to 2.0 times by the stop of the menstruation examined (Figure 3d). The trend is very different for 2d-generation women. This group begins the period with the same level of convictions as the reference group, merely is and then characterized by an excess risk for conviction that increases gradually throughout more than or less the entire period examined.

Levels of backlog run a risk for violent crime accept decreased for all groups of strange background (Figure 3e). During the 1990s, the average level of overrepresentation was 2.6 times for both female children of immigrants and women born in not-Western countries. For those born in western countries the level of overrepresentation was two.one times that of women born in Sweden. During the 2010s, the corresponding levels of excess risk for confidence were around 2.0 for the two former groups. At the end of the period examined there is hardly whatsoever overrepresentation of foreign-born women from Western countries. Information technology should be noted that since convictions for violent offending are uncommon amid women, the highly fluctuating levels of Figure 3e should be interpreted with some caution.² Among immigrants from non-western countries, for example, no women were bedevilled of violent offences in certain years. These years have been excluded from the presentation.

In that location is also an increase in convictions for drug offences among women in full general, particularly subsequently 1993 (Figure 3f). However, by contrast with the trends among men, foreign-born women are those with the lowest confidence rates, while Swedish-built-in women are those at greatest take a chance of conviction. There is an overrepresentation of 2d-generation women, which is nigh marked during the second one-half of the 1990s (2.v times) and then declines successively afterward the year 2000 to a level of 1.iv times. This means that the increase in convictions for drug offences is most marked amidst native women.

Cohort analysis – cumulative convictions to age 24 by immigrant and socioeconomic background

In this section, we supplement our descriptive assay and provide a more detailed moving picture past focusing on cumulative confidence frequencies to age 24 for the cohorts born betwixt 1966 and 1993.

Tabular array 1a–b shows the development, in terms of percentages and relative take a chance ratios, of offenders with at least one conviction and repeat offenders stratified by immigrant groundwork and gender, and presented past four-twelvemonth grouped cohorts. Seen over the period as a whole, immigrants and the second generation take a higher chance of being convicted for a criminal offence than natives. This is truthful for both males and females and regardless of conviction category. Furthermore, we cannot see the pattern noted earlier, whereby the level of overrepresentation for second-generation men passes that of those born abroad. Instead, Immigrants have a slightly higher backlog risk compared to the second generation over the full menstruation. However, the difference between these two groups declines successively and at the terminate of the flow examined, the percentages with at least one conviction virtually identical.³

Table 1. a-b. Men (a) and women (b) born between 1966 and 1993 followed betwixt ages 15 and 24 (i.e. who reached age 24 in the years 1990–2017) by grouped birth cohort, immigrant background and number of convictions. Prevalence (%), relative risks (RR) and grouped accomplice size (Northward)

Every bit regards the trend for the small but highly agile group of men with 4 or more convictions to age 24, we tin see that here too, second-generation men move up to describe level with the men who were born abroad. The backlog risk for immigrant men lies at shut to three times at the beginning and finish of the menstruum examined, simply is somewhat higher among those that reached historic period 24 during the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s (i.e. cohorts built-in 1970–1981). The corresponding excess risk for second-generation men increases from effectually two at the beginning of the period to three at the end. Underlying this tendency is a general pass up in the percentages of the population with several convictions. The increase in the excess take a chance among 2nd-generation men is thus due the fact that the reject in this group is slightly weaker than that in the other two groups of men.

The patterns for women with at least one conviction and for those with two or more convictions are similar, although at very different levels. In both of these groups, the level of overrepresentation amidst women of foreign background declines, starting with cohorts built-in in the late 1970s. If we await to the modest group of women with repeated convictions, for example, the level of overrepresentation among those built-in abroad was 3.2 times for cohorts born 1974–1977, declining to i.7 times in the youngest group. Overall, amidst the women, we see a decline in the differences betwixt the dissimilar immigrant background groups in both accented and relative terms.

Trends among immigrant groundwork groups within the low-income category

In the final phase of our analysis we examine the distribution of convictions across immigrant groundwork groups amid those within the depression-income category. This involves a simple just informative command for the significance of differences in childhood and living weather betwixt the immigrant background groups. Thus, Table 2a–b presents the percentages of individuals with at least one and at least four convictions to age 24 for men and women from low-income families by the three different immigrant background groups, and presented past four-year grouped cohorts.

Tabular array 2. a-b. Men (a) and women (b) from low-income background built-in between 1966 and 1993 followed between ages fifteen and 24 (i.e. who reached historic period 24 in the years 1990–2017) by grouped nascence cohort, immigrant background and number of convictions. Prevalence (%), relative risks (RR) and grouped cohort size (N)

Commencement with the men, we at present encounter much smaller differences over the whole period, as compared to the levels of overrepresentation presented to a higher place. In the three oldest cohort groups, native men lie at a level below that of the other 2 groups. Thereafter, the differences are minor and fairly stable. This is the instance both for those with at to the lowest degree one conviction and for those with at least four convictions. In the group that is of most involvement from a crime policy perspective, i.due east. the small group of repeat offenders, there is, however, still an backlog risk for second-generation men in the youngest cohorts of around one.3–1.7 times, and for immigrant men of around 1.i–1.3 times.

Turning to the women, hither besides we see that the levels of backlog chance are greatly affected by the fact that the assay is limited to those who accept grown upward in low-income families. Once again, we run into that the level of overrepresentation declines and that information technology converges in cohorts born in the late 1970s and later. Information technology is notable that among those women who have grown up in the most disadvantaged families, we see that during the menstruation since the millennium the lowest levels are constitute among those who were built-in abroad. This is especially salient with regard to repeat offenders in the youngest cohort grouping where in that location is a 50% lower gamble of being bedevilled at least twice in the immigrant population compared to the native population.⁴

Final discussion

Despite the big number of studies that have examined offending amid immigrants in Scandinavia since the 1970s, none have been able to depict longer term trends in the level of overrepresentation. In this article, we have shown that among men, the level of convictions for law-breaking has declined irrespective of the individuals' immigrant groundwork. The overarching trend over the past 40 years, equally shown past a traditional cross-sectional analysis, is primarily characterized past a similarity in the trends betwixt persons built-in abroad and those born in Sweden. In spite of this, when nosotros written report the relative trends it is articulate that the level of overrepresentation has changed in certain respects. For men built-in abroad, the levels of overrepresentation are lower during the 2010s than they were during the 1990s and at the beginning of the 2000s, irrespective of whether they were born in Western or not-Western countries, and not least with regard to convictions for violent criminal offence. It is as well notable that this pattern of declining overrepresentation is confirmed by a study based on the Swedish self-report surveys conducted amongst students enrolled in 9^th grade (15–16 years old) during the period 1999–2017 (Vasiljevic et al., 2020).

Previous Swedish studies accept constitute conviction levels to be higher for immigrants than for the second generation. This pattern differs from that noted in studies from other countries, and has been interpreted every bit a positive result of integration, with children who are born and grow up in Sweden being assumed to have more similar life chances irrespective of background (run into e.yard. Von Hofer et al., 1998). The time series presented in this article bear witness that this situation has inverse, and that the design is no longer found during the 2010s, at least as regards the gamble for confidence. This ways that the second generation constitutes the group for whom the tendency in convictions has been the least positive. When nosotros focus on different offence types, it is clear that young second-generation men have experienced a powerful increase in convictions for drug offences, which is an important role of the reason why this grouping is at higher risk for conviction than foreign-born men at the terminate of the period examined. In addition, their convictions for theft offences take declined less than those of native men, which contributes to the increased level of excess adventure. It may also exist noted that the trend has been fairly like for immigrants from both Western and non-Western countries.

It is too notable that our results are similar to those reported in neighbouring Scandinavian countries (encounter e.g. Andersen et al., 2011:16; Andersen et al., 2022). In this regard, the accusations in the Nordic political contend of a special 'Swedish condition' regarding immigration and crime trends seems inaccurate. However, the available Scandinavian studies all apply different operationalizations of key indicators and also differ in their methods of analysis. As was recently noted by Klement (2020), this makes it difficult to compare studies both inside and between countries. A comparative study covering a substantial menstruation of time based on a common method and comparable data would therefore exist very useful.

Previous Swedish and Nordic research has rarely studied trends in immigrant background and law-breaking over time amongst women, and nosotros therefore know trivial about whether the tendency in levels of overrepresentation among women follows that seen amidst men. Amidst foreign-born women, convictions have declined over time, whereas conviction levels among Swedish-born women have remained relatively unchanged. The decline in differences between the confidence levels of Swedish and foreign-built-in women over the past 25 years is particularly marked in relation to theft offences. Further, there is an interesting divergence with regard to drug offences, where nosotros encounter a considerably lower adventure for conviction among strange-born women compared to those born in Sweden. Withal, the change in the societal reaction to drug offences from around 1993 has produced an increased number of convictions for drug offences among women, irrespective of immigrant groundwork. Further, in the aforementioned fashion as among the men, the trend is least positive for the second-generation women, and here likewise, the increase in convictions for drug offences is hit. Since the Scandinavian studies of which we are aware have non studied trends among women, nosotros cannot know whether our Nordic neighbours accept experienced similar or different trends.

The second part of our results section presented findings from accomplice-based analyses focused on the gamble for convictions over a 10-year period, which also identified the small grouping of individuals who were convicted repeatedly. In these analyses we have been able to link individuals to their parents in order to business relationship for the impact of socioeconomic background. Over the menstruation 1990–2017, there has been a subtract in the proportion of men who had been bedevilled several times past historic period 24. This decline is somewhat less marked among second-generation men, which has rendered an increase of the excess run a risk from 2 to iii for this grouping relative to native men during the flow examined. Among women, we see a potential decline in the size of these between-grouping differences, with a gentle increase over the course of the period for native women at the same time as there is a decline in the proportion of women of immigrant background with two or more convictions, primarily during the 1990s. However, due to small-scale numbers these patterns should be interpreted with some caution.

Nosotros know from previous research that there are substantial differences in socioeconomic atmospheric condition between the dissimilar immigrant background groups (see e.g. Hällsten et al., 2013; Andersen et al., 2022). Nosotros would therefore expect to find a big role of the overrepresentation in convictions amongst those born away and in the 2nd generation, both in general, and specially in relation to repeatedly registered offending, to exist linked to these socioeconomic differences. The difference by comparison with previous studies is that we have been able to follow how this relationship has developed over time. We tin encounter that within the low-income category, the differences in levels of convictions between the immigrant groundwork categories accept declined over time for both men and women. The differences are particularly pocket-size in cohorts built-in in the tardily 1970s and later on. Post-obit this control for the individuals' socioeconomic conditions during childhood, there is about no overrepresentation during the 2010s for foreign-born men in relation to native men. Amongst the strange-built-in women, the overrepresentation has instead become an underrepresentation. It should here be borne in heed, however, that our indicator of low-income background is a relatively 'stringent' measure. Having lived in a household in which the adults were counted among the 10 per cent of the population with the everyman piece of work-related incomes in two of three years involves a relatively powerful selection with regard to resource deficiencies and thus probably as well an aggregating of other social problems. It is probable that this selection is more powerful in the native population than among those born abroad, since a larger proportion of the latter group are counted amidst those with depression incomes. The relationships between these different factors plant an important surface area for time to come research.

The reduction we have shown in the level of overrepresentation for foreign-born individuals, irrespective of the region from which they have migrated, may announced surprising given that there have been simultaneous increases in levels of inequality and residential segregation. The composition of the group of foreign-built-in individuals has also shifted over fourth dimension both with regard to country of origin and reason for migration. A larger proportion is at present comprised of refugees from non-Western countries. Information technology is therefore hard to relate the trends we accept described to factors related to irresolute self-pick amongst immigrants. How then might the trends exist understood?

In lodge to understand the similarities in conviction trends between the dissimilar groups, non to the lowest degree with regard to theft offences, explanations focused on the opportunity construction are of grade important (Farrell et al., 2015). Measures that reduce the opportunities for crime affect different groups irrespective of their immigrant background.

Differences between the unlike immigrant background groups in living conditions and resources has been linked to differences in crime (e.g., Hällsten et al., 2013; Andersen et al., 2022). Increasing inequalities may also be causeless to mean that any deteriorations, or improvements, that have occurred in relation to babyhood weather and life chances have not been evenly distributed across all groups in club. Nosotros have shown that the children of immigrants found one of the groups characterized by a less positive conviction trend. We know from previous research that this group has also experienced less positive trends in terms of parents' economic resource (Bäckman et al., 2020:83 f). An interpretation that would view increased inequality every bit a mechanism underlying increased differences in criminal convictions is however made more difficult by the fact that we run across a quite different trend amidst individuals born abroad, among whom the size of the excess risk for conviction has instead declined. In guild to better understand these trends, which may announced somewhat contradictory, would require more detailed analyses than those presented in this article. This might, for example, involve looking more than closely at how the composition of the different groups has changed over fourth dimension, amidst other things with regard to social background, reasons for migration, private resources and the significance of residential segregation.

Interpretations of our results are of course also complicated past the fact that trends in convictions are not only a issue of offending behaviour but besides of society's reactions to criminal offense and the public´s inclination to report crime. If for example, the police choose to direct their control measures at socially disadvantaged areas, the detection risk will increase more for those who spend time in these areas (Irwin et al., 2013; McAra, 2016; Schclarek Mulinari, 2020). Every bit a ways of approaching this issue, we accept in the current study utilized the fact that theft, violence and drug offences come to the attention of the justice system in different ways, and we view drug offences in particular every bit an offence for which convictions are greatly afflicted by the focus of policing measures. On the footing of self-report surveys of young people of different immigrant background, between-group differences in drug employ appear to exist relatively small (Brå, 2018), while at the same time this written report shows there are substantial differences in confidence levels. This might exist due to a policing upshot, with young men of foreign background being at greater risk than other groups of being stopped by the police on suspicion of drug law-breaking. Although our study cannot measure differences in the risk of being stopped by the police, 2 points may be noted. Firstly, the trend in convictions for drug offences appears relatively similar, irrespective of immigrant background group since the legislative change of 1993. This suggests that all groups have been afflicted by the increase in constabulary controls in relation to drug offending. Secondly, it is articulate that the increase in convictions for drug crime constitutes one explanation for the increased level of the overrepresentation of the second generation as compared to persons born away. A closer examination of the trends across unlike sociodemographic groups in the risk for beingness subject field to law controls, and for then beingness registered for criminal offense, would be very useful.

Finally, information technology should be noted that there was a major wave of immigration at the end of the menstruum we have examined, largely equally a consequence of the state of war in Syria (SCB, 2018). To what extent this has produced new conditions and by extension a shift in the risk for offending is something this article has not been able to capture. What nosotros can say on the basis of our study, nevertheless, is that despite the fact that nosotros include a long observation catamenia characterized by substantial changes in the level and limerick of immigration to Sweden, we see no major changes in the level of excess hazard for conviction among those of immigrant groundwork. The level of overrepresentation among 2nd-generation immigrants has increased somewhat, while the overrepresentation of those born abroad has decreased towards the end of the period examined. At the general level, even so, confidence levels have decreased, to a greater extent among men than among women, irrespective of immigrant groundwork. This is something that was previously unknown, and that may surprise many, given the public fence in Scandinavia, where crime trends are often linked to increased immigration (meet eg. Estrada, 1999; Rydgren, 2004).